Home » Covid-19 unlock – saving lives or saving economy?

December 6, 2021    By admin


It appears that every two weeks, the number of worldwide confirmed Covid-19 cases increases by one million people meaning that virtually every country is experiencing an increase. By end of April 2020, that global number will have exceeded 3000000 going by the statistical trend. Some patients recover (one-in-three), some pass away (say 7%) while majority remain under hospitalization quarantine. But the majority of the population is well (or appears to be), hence the calls for the lifting of the lockdown measures so that much needed economic activities can resume alongside maintaining standard operating health measures. Without an economy, funding for health activities (including Covid-19) may not materialize. China, USA, Brazil and some European countries have begun unlocking their economies in  a phased manner.

Source of raw data that was analyzed by author. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases

Key: M.24 = March 24th, M.25 = March 25th,  A.1 = April 1st, A.2 = April 2nd and so on

Apart from the Asian continent whose graphs shows an almost flat daily rate of growth of new Covid-19 from 3% at 24-March and again 3% at 24-April, the rest of the other continents show an encouraging trend. For example, African continent improved from daily growth rates of over 10% down to 6% although with an upswing from 20-April. Americas was also promising falling to 5% but equally with an upswing. The same story with Europe falling to 3% per day with an upswing in recent days.

Unemployment and related economic woes (poverty, hunger etc) have started to bite very hard and any further lockdown will soon be catastrophic. However, the rates of daily increments in Covid-19 confirmed cases is still high. If the current rates continue up end of April 2020, the number of confirmed cases worldwide will hit 3500000 with 43000 on the African continent. Everyone would like a best case scenario where daily confirmed cases increase by 1% per day or even less. It is inevitable that most of the lockdown restrictions will be lifted in May 2020; the only difference will be in the phases of unlocking.