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Outlook: the Covid-19 recoveries
December 6, 2021    By admin


When the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Covid-19 a pandemic on 11-Mar-2020, only 4% of patients were recovering from the virus. By then, it appeared that the virus had condemned many patients to early and premature death. However, the situation had brightened much to the relief of Governments and their citizens.

Starting with Africa, the percentage of patients who had recovered from Covid-19 were 27% at 20-April-2020. This percentage increased to 41% in just one month by    20-May-2020. Americas was still battling due to challenges in the USA and Brazil. However, the percentage of confirmed people recovering had also improved from 14% to 26%. Europe was also on steady progress from 29% to 43% despite heavy losses in the UK, Italy, Spain and France. Every continent was improving in terms of recoveries. Asia from 47% to 58% and the best performer was Oceania from 65% to 92%.

Source of raw data that was analyzed by author. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases

Given that global death was 7% of confirmed cases as of May 2020, the highest percentage of recovered cases would be 93%. But as this specific coronavirus pathogen fades away in the future and a specific antibody is discovered, 100% recovery from Covid-19 may become commonplace.  WHO says that this pandemic is far from over, but the economies cannot remain closed forever. Eventually, international travel must resume to bolster economies that rely on tourism and oil.

Therefore, a graph that shows the increasing percentage of people recovering from Covid-19 should motivate Government to open up the economy. Citizens can then be asked to follow mandatory health protocols to avoid upswing of new infections. Contact tracing, testing and treatment must continue in earnest. Social distancing can continue for most of 2020 until the virus is subdued. A combination of public health measures (hand washing, sanitizers, masks etc.) can become normal.

If new Covid-19 cases are 1% or less on a daily basis, this would be manageable using existing medical personnel and equipment (most of them have since been beefed up). If 80-90% of patients are recovering, then the virus would no longer be a major threat.